Weekly Technical Analysis & Market Forecast (1–5 December 2025)

Major Technical Levels to Watch This Week

Instrument	Support Levels	Resistance Levels
EURUSD	1.1525, 1.1405	1.1620, 1.1650
USDJPY	154.90, 153.90	157.77, 158.40
GBPUSD	1.3145, 1.3088	1.3266, 1.3290
AUDUSD	0.6486, 0.6422	0.6540, 0.6555
USDCAD	1.3970, 1.3940	1.4130, 1.4160
Gold (XAUUSD)	4140, 4022	4280, 4380
Brent	61.90, 60.00	65.00, 69.10

EURUSD Forecast

Fundamental Overview

Market uncertainty is rising, driven by two primary themes:

1. US fiscal tensions and Trump administration pressure

The White House is intensifying budget-replenishment measures through revised trade policies and added pressure on external partners. This increases volatility across USD pairs. Investors expect tighter fiscal policy and prolonged rhetoric on fair financial contributions from allies.

2. Geopolitical escalation in the Caribbean

Rising tensions — including US naval deployments, energy-related diplomatic standoffs, and pressure on Latin American governments — are contributing to a higher geopolitical risk premium.
EURUSD receives moderate safe-haven flows, but the broader trend still favors a stronger USD.

Conclusion: Fundamentals remain mixed but tilt toward medium-term USD strength. Any EUR upward spikes still appear corrective.

EURUSD Technical Analysis

EURUSD continues consolidating around 1.1570, the structural pivot point. Price remains within a narrowing wedge, forming the third downward wave toward 1.1405.

Short-term structure points to a corrective move up to 1.1616, followed by a continuation of the bearish impulse.

After reaching 1.1405, the pair may retest 1.1570 from below before extending lower toward:

• 1.1230 (fifth wave target)
• 1.0380 (medium-term objective)

EURUSD Forecast Scenarios

Bearish (Base Scenario)

• Complete correction near 1.1616
• Resume decline toward 1.1405
• Potential consolidation and rebound toward 1.1570

Bullish (Alternative Scenario — Low Probability)

A breakout above 1.1620 with rising volume opens a path toward 1.1700, likely only under short-term USD weakness.

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USDJPY Forecast

Fundamental Overview

1. US yields and fiscal uncertainties

Potential increases in Treasury issuance keep bond yields elevated, supporting USD. However, unresolved budget debates create intermittent USD corrections.

2. BOJ’s dovish stance

Japan maintains ultra-loose policy, with only occasional intervention threats. Levels above 155 are sensitive but not yet intervention triggers.

3. Geopolitical risk (Caribbean)

Tensions may cause temporary yen demand, but overall impact remains irregular.

4. Risk appetite

Stable US equities reduce safe-haven flows into JPY unless geopolitical or fiscal stress escalates.

USDJPY Technical Analysis

Price reached the wave projection at 157.77, then formed a downside impulse and entered consolidation near 156.40.

This week:

• Expected decline to 154.90
• Recovery back to 156.40 to confirm range boundaries

A breakout above the consolidation suggests continuation of the uptrend toward:

• 158.40, then
• 159.88

A break below 154.90 signals a deeper correction toward 149.90.

USDJPY Forecast Scenarios

Bearish (Base Scenario)

• Drop to 154.90
• Recovery to 156.40
• Break below 154.90 opens the door to 149.90

Bullish (Alternative Scenario)

• Break above 157.00 → continuation toward 158.40 → 159.88

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GBPUSD Forecast

Fundamental Overview

UK: Slowing activity and recession risks

• Weak domestic demand
• Core CPI above target → BoE must remain cautious
• Services PMI at the stagnation threshold (50)
• No BoE cuts expected before H2 2026

US: Strong labor market and hawkish Fed

• Fed expects to keep rates higher for longer
• NFP beats expectations
• Treasury yields rising moderately

Geopolitics

Caribbean tensions periodically boost USD safe-haven demand.

Cross-market influence

• DXY in bullish structure → persistent pressure on GBP
• Stable oil indirectly supports USD

GBPUSD Technical Analysis

GBPUSD has formed a consolidation around 1.3150.

After touching 1.3268, price is expected to decline to 1.3145, then potentially recover toward 1.3290.

Upon completion, a new downward wave may start:

• Primary pivot: 1.3150
• Downside targets: 1.2980, then 1.2580

GBPUSD Forecast Scenarios

Bearish (Main Scenario)

• Move toward 1.3145
• Broader downtrend remains intact

Bullish (Alternative Scenario)

• Recovery from 1.3145 toward 1.3290

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AUDUSD Forecast

Fundamental Overview

The Australian dollar remains pressured due to:

• Uncertainty in global commodity demand
• RBA’s cautious tone
• Weak risk appetite amid Asia-Pacific tensions
• Mixed Chinese macro data
• Strong USD supported by yields and safe-haven flows

AUDUSD Technical Analysis

AUDUSD completed its corrective target at 0.6539.

This week:

• Expected decline to 0.6486
• Possible rebound toward 0.6555 (upper range boundary)

A large Triangle pattern is forming — likely a reversal pattern — increasing the probability of a downside breakout.

Medium-term target: 0.6226

AUDUSD Forecast Scenarios

Bearish (Main Scenario)

• Drop to 0.6486
• Setup forming for a downside breakout from the Triangle

Bullish (Alternative Scenario)

• Break above 0.6555 would extend the corrective structure

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USDCAD Forecast

Fundamental Overview

CAD faces pressure from:

• BoC uncertainty
• Weak domestic demand and exports

USD remains supported by:

• Expectations of later rate cuts
• Safe-haven flows
• Higher yields

Oil remains near-neutral to slightly bearish as supply signals remain unclear.

USDCAD Technical Analysis

The pair continues to consolidate around 1.4055 within a narrowing Wedge pattern.

Expected this week:

• Decline toward 1.3980–1.3960 (lower Wedge boundary)
• Subsequent rise toward 1.4120
• Break above the Wedge opens the path toward 1.4160

USDCAD Forecast Scenarios

Bullish (Main Scenario)

• Structure favors continuation toward 1.4160
• Larger impulse possible if Wedge breaks upward

Bearish (Alternative Scenario)

• Move to 1.3980–1.3960
• Break below Wedge signals deeper correction

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XAUUSD (Gold) Forecast

Fundamental Overview

Gold trades under two opposing forces:

Supportive factors

• US budget uncertainty
• Rising geopolitical tensions (Middle East, Caribbean)

Bearish factors

• Strong USD
• High Treasury yields
• Expectations that the Fed will slow easing in 2026

Result: high volatility but no clear long-term trend yet.

Gold Technical Analysis

Gold broke above 4140, forming consolidation around this level — confirming the development of an extended fifth corrective wave toward 4280.

If price reverses from 4280 and breaks back below 4140, a bearish segment begins:

• First target: 4022
• Break lower: 3844

If price holds above 4280, the medium-term uptrend could extend to 4555.

Gold Forecast Scenarios

Bullish (Main Scenario)

• Price holds above 4140
• Fifth wave targets 4280

Bearish (Alternative Scenario)

• Break below 4140 → 4022
• Break below 4022 → 3844

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Brent Crude Oil Forecast

Fundamental Overview

Brent remains highly sensitive to:

• Escalation in Europe and the Middle East
• Severe instability in Venezuela
• Expanding sanctions on Russian energy exports

These factors collectively increase the probability of sudden bullish impulses.

Brent Technical Analysis

Brent continues correcting within a descending Flag pattern, reaching the projected target at 61.00.

Current structure:

• Price is retesting 62.72 from below
• Break above 62.72 → new bullish impulse toward 65.00, then 78.30
• Short-term dip to 60.90 remains possible

Brent Forecast Scenarios

Bullish (Main Scenario)

High geopolitical risk may trigger a sharp rally:

• 69.10
• 76.76
• 78.30 (major wave target)

Bearish (Alternative Scenario)

Extended correction remains possible:

• Break below 62.72 → move to 61.90

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Risk Warning

Past performance does not guarantee future results. Trading leveraged products carries significant risk and may not be suitable for all investors.

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