Weekly Technical Analysis and Forecast (22–26 December 2025)

Key Technical Levels to Watch This Week

• EURUSD
  Support: 1.1616, 1.1430
  Resistance: 1.1800, 1.1850
• USDJPY
  Support: 154.00, 151.00
  Resistance: 157.00, 157.80
• GBPUSD
  Support: 1.3145, 1.3000
  Resistance: 1.3455, 1.3530
• AUDUSD
  Support: 0.6555, 0.6484
  Resistance: 0.6622, 0.6680
• USDCAD
  Support: 1.3700, 1.3670
  Resistance: 1.3970, 1.4160
• Gold (XAUUSD)
  Support: 4,275, 4,150
  Resistance: 4,377, 4,444
• Brent Crude Oil
  Support: 58.55, 58.00
  Resistance: 63.66, 68.70

EURUSD Outlook

Fundamental Background

EURUSD remains under pressure as geopolitical tensions, diverging monetary policies between the Federal Reserve and the ECB, and growing concerns about the eurozone’s institutional stability continue to favour the US dollar.

Rising geopolitical risks increase global uncertainty and support demand for traditional safe-haven assets, with the US dollar benefiting from its dominant role in global finance and liquidity. In contrast, the euro faces increasing capital outflows as investors reassess political and legal risks within the eurozone.

The Federal Reserve maintains a comparatively hawkish tone, signalling readiness to keep interest rates elevated if inflation risks persist. The ECB, constrained by weak growth prospects, has limited scope for further tightening.

Additionally, ongoing discussions within the EU regarding frozen Russian assets raise long-term concerns over legal predictability, further increasing the euro’s risk premium and reducing its attractiveness as a reserve currency.

Lower year-end liquidity further amplifies the impact of technical breakouts, increasing the likelihood of sharp, impulsive price moves.

Technical Picture

On the daily chart, EURUSD completed an initial decline to 1.1473, followed by a corrective rebound towards 1.1800. The pair is currently consolidating around 1.1750.

A downside breakout is expected to open the path towards 1.1616, where the 50-day moving average may provide temporary support and trigger a corrective rebound towards 1.1700. Once this correction is complete, renewed downside pressure could drive the pair towards 1.1427, with extension potential to 1.1174.

Scenarios

• Bearish (primary): Breakdown below consolidation opens targets at 1.1616, 1.1430, 1.1174, and 1.1050.
• Bullish (alternative): A confirmed break above 1.1800 may extend gains towards 1.1900, though this is considered unlikely.

USDJPY Outlook

Fundamental Background

USDJPY remains in a medium-term uptrend but has entered a corrective and consolidation phase after reaching its recent growth target.

While expectations of Fed easing in 2026 limit aggressive upside, US Treasury yields remain elevated, sustaining a wide yield differential with Japan. Meanwhile, the Bank of Japan continues its ultra-loose policy, keeping the yen structurally weak and reinforcing its role as a funding currency.

Year-end conditions of lower liquidity increase the risk of false breakouts and range-bound trading.

Technical Picture

USDJPY reached its local target near 157.85, then pulled back into a consolidation zone around 155.55.

A further decline towards 154.00 is likely, followed by a rebound back into the range. A break above 157.00 would revive bullish momentum towards 158.40 and potentially 160.00, while a breakdown below 154.00 would deepen the correction towards 149.90.

Scenarios

• Bearish (main): Pullback to 154.00, then rebound towards 156.40.
• Bullish (alternative): Break above 157.00 opens the way to 158.40.

GBPUSD Outlook

Fundamental Background

Sterling remains under pressure amid slowing UK economic activity and persistent uncertainty around Bank of England policy. The US dollar’s safe-haven appeal continues to cap upside attempts, with rallies viewed primarily as corrective.

Technical Picture

GBPUSD is consolidating below key resistance at 1.3455. A new downward leg is expected to develop towards 1.3145, a level reinforced by local support and the SMA50.

From there, a corrective rebound towards 1.3266–1.3300 is possible, after which renewed selling pressure could push the pair towards 1.2838, with further downside risk extending to 1.2580.

Scenarios

• Bearish (main): Decline to 1.3145, correction, then continuation towards 1.2838–1.2580.
• Bullish (alternative): Holding above 1.3145 allows a corrective rise to 1.3300.

AUDUSD Outlook

Fundamental Background

AUDUSD remains vulnerable amid tight US monetary policy, cautious RBA positioning, and ongoing weakness in China’s economic outlook. Commodity-linked currencies continue to underperform as global growth uncertainty persists.

Technical Picture

AUDUSD broke above 0.6555 to reach 0.6680, but this move is viewed as corrective within a broader downtrend.

A decline back towards 0.6555 is expected, followed by a limited rebound towards 0.6622. The formation of a triangle pattern near the highs suggests a bearish breakout is more likely, with medium-term downside targets near 0.6172.

Scenarios

• Bearish (main): Decline to 0.6555, then towards 0.6425.
• Bullish (alternative): Break above 0.6680 extends correction to 0.6750.

USDCAD Outlook

Fundamental Background

USDCAD continues to find support from Fed policy expectations and relatively weak Canadian growth. Oil market volatility and expectations of a softer Bank of Canada stance limit CAD strength.

Technical Picture

After breaking below 1.3970, USDCAD completed a corrective move to 1.3733 and is now consolidating near 1.3805.

If support holds, an upward impulse towards 1.3970 is likely. A confirmed break above this level opens the path towards 1.4160.

Scenarios

• Bullish (main): Break higher towards 1.3970, then 1.4160.
• Bearish (alternative): Sideways movement with downside risk to 1.3700–1.3670.

Gold (XAUUSD) Outlook

Fundamental Background

Gold remains fundamentally supported by expectations of future monetary easing, persistent inflation risks, rising fiscal concerns, and heightened geopolitical uncertainty. Discussions around sovereign asset freezes further strengthen gold’s appeal as a reserve asset.

Lower holiday liquidity supports consolidation rather than trend reversal.

Technical Picture

Gold is consolidating near 4,300 after completing a strong upward impulse.

A breakout above 4,377 would signal continuation towards 4,444, while a break below 4,275 would trigger a corrective pullback towards 4,150–4,080, without undermining the broader bullish structure.

Scenarios

• Bullish (main): Holding above 4,275 and breaking 4,377 opens the way to 4,444.
• Bearish (alternative): Consolidation below 4,275 leads to a corrective dip.

Brent Crude Oil Outlook

Fundamental Background

Brent enters the final trading week of the year supported by geopolitical tensions in Europe, the Middle East, and Venezuela, alongside expectations of tight OPEC+ supply discipline.

While near-term demand remains mixed due to seasonal slowdown, expectations of recovery in early 2026 support a bullish medium-term outlook.

Technical Picture

Brent has completed a corrective decline to 58.55, which now acts as key support.

A recovery towards 63.66 is expected, followed by a corrective pullback towards 61.00. If bullish momentum strengthens, the market may extend towards 68.70, with a broader upside objective near 78.30.

Scenarios

• Bullish (main): Break higher towards 68.70, then 72.60, with 78.30 as the major wave target.
• Bearish (alternative): Break below 59.00 opens downside towards 58.00.

Risk Disclaimer

Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Trading in financial markets involves significant risk and may not be suitable for all investors.