Monthly Technical Analysis and Forecast – November 2025
Major Technical Levels to Watch – November 2025
| Asset | Support Levels | Resistance Levels |
|---|---|---|
| EURUSD | 1.1250, 1.1040 | 1.1720, 1.1820 |
| USDJPY | 151.00, 146.40 | 158.00, 161.00 |
| GBPUSD | 1.2828, 1.2580 | 1.3150, 1.3460 |
| AUDUSD | 0.6350, 0.6200 | 0.6630, 0.6700 |
| USDCAD | 1.3933, 1.3727 | 1.4160, 1.4333 |
| Gold (XAUUSD) | 3,660, 3,200 | 4,100, 4,400 |
| Brent Crude | 60.00, 59.00 | 78.30, 94.00 |
EURUSD Forecast
Fundamental Overview
The EURUSD pair in November continues to hinge on the divergence between Federal Reserve and ECB monetary policies.
- Federal Reserve: Policymakers maintain a cautious tone, signalling a gradual shift but no imminent rate cuts. The first potential cut is priced in for Q1 2026. While inflation is easing, weaker labour data and softer consumer activity spark speculation of a “soft pivot.”
- European Central Bank: Core inflation lags behind the US, with the eurozone economy near stagnation. The ECB is wary of premature easing, prioritising banking stability and industrial support.
- Geopolitics: US–EU trade frictions persist amid tariff debates, though both sides seek coordination. Budgetary pressure in the US challenges the dollar’s long-term sustainability.
- Capital Flows: Safe-haven demand supports the dollar early in the month, yet US fiscal imbalances periodically curb its strength.
Outlook: The dollar remains firm short term but looks fundamentally stretched medium term.
Technical Outlook
On the weekly chart, EURUSD has begun shaping the first structure of a major downward cycle, likely forming a five-wave decline.
- First downward target: 1.1040
- Expected short-term move: dip to 1.1250, followed by a correction toward 1.1500, then renewed pressure towards 1.1040
Larger Wave Framework (Higher Timeframe):
1.2000 → 1.0200 → (wave 1 down)
1.0200 → 1.1040 → (wave 2 correction)
1.1040 → 0.9330 → (wave 3 down)
0.9330 → 1.0200 → (wave 4 correction)
1.0200 → 0.8500 → (wave 5 down)
Long-term bias: Bearish
Scenarios
- Base Case (Bearish): Rejection from 1.1720, with a break below 1.1500, confirms the first wave down towards 1.1040.
- Alternative (Bullish): If EURUSD consolidates above 1.1720, upside targets are 1.1820 and 1.2000, supported only by strong fundamentals.
USDJPY Forecast
Fundamental Overview
USDJPY remains supported by rate divergence:
- Fed Policy: Persistent high rates amid a resilient labour market.
- BoJ Policy: Still ultra-loose, with minimal intervention despite rising JGB yields.
- Macro Conditions: Japan’s modest inflation and soft domestic demand keep the yen under pressure.
- Risk Sentiment: Steady dollar demand and limited safe-haven flows sustain USDJPY’s bullish tone.
Summary: Fundamentals favour continued yen weakness.
Technical Outlook
USDJPY broke 151.70, extending to 154.43 and forming the third wave of an ongoing uptrend.
- Possible short correction to 151.70 before resuming the climb.
- Medium-term targets: 158.00, 161.00, and extended 163.20.
Trend: Uptrend remains intact while above 151.70.
Scenarios
- Main (Bullish): Consolidation above 151.70, rise towards 158.00–161.00, then potential extension to 163.20.
- Alternative (Bearish): Break below 151.00 triggers correction towards 146.40. (Low probability)
GBPUSD Forecast
Fundamental Overview
The pound remains under pressure from soft inflation, slowing employment, and dovish expectations for the Bank of England. Meanwhile, steady US data and Fed hawkishness strengthen the USD, widening the yield spread. Safe-haven demand and market uncertainty reinforce dollar demand.
Technical Outlook
After a decisive break below 1.3140, GBPUSD confirmed the completion of a corrective phase, signalling the third wave of a broader decline.
- November target: 1.2580
- A corrective rebound to 1.3140 may follow before renewed weakness towards 1.2490 and the longer-term 1.0730 zone.
Scenarios
- Baseline (Bearish): Move to 1.2828–1.2580, followed by correction and renewed decline towards 1.2490 / 1.0730.
- Alternative (Bullish): Break above 1.3460 could trigger recovery to 1.3700, though probability is low.
AUDUSD Forecast
Fundamental Overview
The AUD remains pressured by monetary divergence:
- Fed: Hawkish tone, maintaining high-rate advantage.
- RBA: Dovish bias, cautious about domestic weakness.
- China: Slowing industrial momentum weighs on Australian exports.
Technical Outlook
The pair is consolidating near 0.6530 after a correction.
Expected sequence:
- Decline towards 0.6350, correction to 0.6530, then extended fall to 0.6200 and 0.5880 (medium-term wave target).
Scenarios
- Baseline (Bearish): Below 0.6530, continuation towards 0.6350, with eventual test of 0.5880.
- Alternative (Bullish): Break above 0.6630–0.6700 may initiate medium-term correction.
USDCAD Forecast
Fundamental Overview
The USD remains dominant against a softer CAD backdrop.
- Fed: Strong economy, hawkish bias.
- BoC: Dovish tone amid slowing growth.
- Oil: Weak correlation with CAD; limited support from crude.
Technical Outlook
The pair maintains a bullish bias above 1.3930 (SMA50).
- Expected rise towards 1.4333, correction to 1.3933, then further advance towards 1.4690 and 1.5030.
Scenarios
- Main (Bullish): Above 1.3930, targets at 1.4160, 1.4333, 1.4690, 1.5030.
- Alternative (Bearish): Below 1.3930, correction towards 1.3730.
Gold (XAUUSD) Forecast
Fundamental Overview
Gold faces mixed conditions:
- Negative: Elevated real rates, strong USD.
- Positive: Geopolitical tensions, central bank demand, and rising prospects of Fed easing in early 2026.
Technical Outlook
After breaking below 4,004, gold is consolidating lower.
- Expected to test 3,660 support before resuming the uptrend.
- A rebound from 3,660 could drive gold to 4,550 and 4,770.
Scenarios
- Baseline (Bullish): Pullback to 3,660 completes correction; recovery towards 4,550–4,770 follows.
- Alternative (Bearish): Break below 3,660 extends decline towards 3,200.
Brent Crude Oil Forecast
Fundamental Overview
Oil remains driven by the balance between OPEC+ policy and global demand:
- OPEC+: Maintaining quotas but may adjust depending on prices near $100.
- Demand: China stabilising, India strong, Europe weak.
- Macro: Easing expectations in 2026 and ongoing geopolitical tensions support prices.
Technical Outlook
Brent completed its fourth corrective wave and is developing the fifth upward wave.
- Immediate target: 69.20
- After correction to 68.00, further growth is expected towards 78.30, 94.00, and 104.00.
Scenarios
- Main (Bullish): Holding above 69.00 keeps the uptrend intact; a break above 81.00 accelerates towards 94.00–104.00.
- Alternative (Bearish): Weak demand could push prices back to 60.00–59.00.
Risk Disclaimer:
Past performance and historical technical outcomes do not guarantee future results. Market conditions may change rapidly due to unforeseen economic or geopolitical events.
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