Monthly Technical Analysis & Forecast for December 2025

Major Technical Levels for December 2025

Asset	Support Levels	Resistance Levels
EURUSD	1.1470, 1.1400	1.1616, 1.1720
USDJPY	154.90, 151.90	158.00, 161.00
GBPUSD	1.2888, 1.2580	1.3300, 1.3400
AUDUSD	0.6370, 0.6200	0.6550, 0.6600
USDCAD	1.3970, 1.3900	1.4160, 1.4270
Gold (XAUUSD)	4140, 4070	4285, 4400
Brent Crude	60.00, 59.00	69.10, 78.30

EURUSD Forecast

Fundamental Overview

December’s EURUSD dynamics are shaped primarily by two opposing macro forces:

United States

• Persistent fiscal deficits continue to create structural downside risk for the USD.
• However, high Treasury yields and safe-haven appeal maintain short-term USD strength.

Eurozone

• Seasonal energy-related spending rises sharply in winter.
• Political frictions over joint budgets and energy support increase uncertainty.
• Several major EU economies face a rising recession probability.

Overall: Despite long-term USD concerns, December’s backdrop supports a bearish EURUSD bias driven by eurozone vulnerability.

Technical Outlook

EURUSD continues to build the first downward structure of a long-term bearish trend.

Wave Structure (Weekly Chart)

• First wave down: 1.0200
• Second corrective wave: 1.1040
• Pivot point: 1.0200
• Third wave target: 0.9330
• Fourth wave correction: back to 1.0200
• Fifth wave target: 0.8500

December Expectations

• Decline towards 1.1400
• Corrective rebound to 1.1550
• Continuation lower toward 1.1222 (medium-term objective)

EURUSD Forecast Scenarios

Baseline (Bearish)

Triggered if:

• Price rejects 1.1616
• Breaks convincingly below 1.1500

Targets:

• 1.1222 (primary)
• Extension: 1.1040

Alternative (Bullish, Low Probability)

Triggered by:

• Break and sustained hold above 1.1720

Targets:

• 1.1820
• Pullback → 1.1720
• Impulsive expansion to 1.2000

---

USDJPY Forecast

Fundamental Overview

• The USD remains supported by the yield differential as the BoJ keeps ultra-loose policy intact.
• Safe-haven demand rises amid elevated geopolitical risks.
• Japan’s mixed domestic data reduces the likelihood of tightening.

Overall: Fundamentals continue to favor a medium-term USDJPY uptrend.

Technical Outlook

• A broad consolidation around 151.90 has broken upward.
• Local upside target 157.77 reached.
• Price consolidated above the weekly SMA50 — forming the pivot for the fifth wave.

December Expectations

• A corrective pullback to 154.90
• Followed by continuation toward 158.00
• Break above → acceleration to 161.00

Main target of the fifth wave: 163.33

USDJPY Forecast Scenarios

Baseline (Bullish)

• Sustained strength above 158.00
• Targets: 161.00 → 163.33

Alternative (Bearish)

• Break below 154.90
• Decline toward 151.90

---

GBPUSD Forecast

Fundamental Overview

Drivers shaping December:

• Sticky UK inflation supports higher-for-longer BoE stance.
• Market expects first rate cuts in Q1 2026.
• USD volatility rises due to US fiscal actions and geopolitical tensions.
• Events in Europe and the Caribbean increase safe-haven USD flows.

Conclusion: GBPUSD upside is capped, with elevated downside risks.

Technical Outlook

• The pair broke upward from consolidation near 1.3150, reaching 1.3260.
• A retest of 1.3150 is likely before another attempt at 1.3300, completing the correction.
• Afterward, the broader downtrend is expected to resume.

Downside Targets

• 1.2888
• 1.2570

GBPUSD Forecast Scenarios

Baseline (Bearish)

A break below 1.3140 activates:

• 1.2888
• 1.2580

Alternative (Bullish, Unlikely)

Break above 1.3220:

• Final corrective target at 1.3300

---

AUDUSD Forecast

Fundamental Overview

Key December influences:

• RBA remains hawkish but economic weaknesses limit further tightening.
• Fed maintains restrictive stance; USD benefits from year-end flows.
• Weak commodity demand and China slowdown pressure the AUD.
• Energy volatility adds additional downside risk.

Conclusion: Fundamentals align with the bearish technical scenario.

Technical Outlook

• Weekly structure remains in a medium-term downtrend around 0.6540.

December Expectations

• Drop to 0.6370
• Corrective rally → 0.6530
• Next wave resumes downtrend toward 0.6200
• Main structural target: 0.5880

AUDUSD Forecast Scenarios

Baseline (Bearish)

Break below 0.6480 leads to:

• 0.6370
• Then potential acceleration toward 0.5880

Alternative (Bullish, Low Probability)

Break above 0.6580:

• Targets: 0.6700 → 0.6780 → 0.6850

---

USDCAD Forecast

Fundamental Overview

• Mixed expectations for Fed easing in 2026 keep USD supported.
• Canada’s slowing economy limits CAD strength.
• Oil prices remain volatile, offering limited support to CAD.

Conclusion: A moderately bullish outlook for USDCAD.

Technical Outlook

• Price broke above 1.4070, forming consolidation.
• December targets: 1.4270 (end of first wave)
• Then a drop toward 1.3900 (second wave)
• New upward wave afterward targeting 1.4690, with a long-term objective of 1.4850

USDCAD Forecast Scenarios

Baseline (Bullish)

• Above 1.4070 → targets 1.4160, 1.4270

Alternative (Bearish)

• Break below 1.3970 → decline to 1.3900

---

XAUUSD (Gold) Forecast

Fundamental Overview

• Safe-haven demand remains elevated.
• Central banks continue heavy gold accumulation.
• Bond yields stabilize, reducing pressure on gold.

Overall: A slightly supportive environment, though still mixed.

Technical Outlook

Gold continues forming a Triangle consolidation near 4,140.

December Expectations

• Rise toward 4,285
• Correction → 4,070
• Below 4,070 → opens decline to 3,844 → 3,660
• Break above the Triangle → extension to 4,555

Gold remains in accumulation before a major directional breakout.

XAUUSD Forecast Scenarios

Baseline (Bullish)

• Break above 4,140 → 4,285 → 4,400–4,555

Alternative (Bearish)

• Break below 4,070 → 3,844 → 3,660

---

Brent Crude Forecast

Fundamental Overview

Key drivers:

• OPEC+ production decisions
• Global industrial demand fluctuations
• Geopolitical tensions
• US reserve management

The market expects moderate quota tightening to stabilize prices.

Technical Outlook

• Brent has completed a correction and begun the first upside structure within the fifth wave.
• Near-term target: 69.10
• Further upside in December: 78.30
• Correction afterward toward 69.00

Long-term trend target: 104.00

Brent Forecast Scenarios

Baseline (Bullish)

• Holding above 69.00
• Break over 81.00 → 94.00 → 104.00

Alternative (Bearish)

• Weak OPEC+ support or poor macro data → return to 60.00–59.00

---

Risk Warning

Past trading performance does not guarantee future results. Financial markets involve risk, and price movements may deviate significantly from projected scenarios.